-Deborah Akinyosoye
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its 2024 growth forecast for Nigeria’s economy to 2.9%, attributing the downgrade to weaker-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year.
This was revealed in the IMF’s October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO), released during the ongoing annual meetings of the World Bank and IMF. The revised forecast represents a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the 3.1% growth forecast projected in the July 2024 WEO.
However, the IMF slightly raised its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2025, projecting a growth rate of 3.2%, up from 3.0% in the July report.
Similarly, the IMF reduced its 2024 growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa to 3.6%, down from 3.7% in July. However, it raised the region’s 2025 growth forecast to 4.2%, up from 4.1%.
The IMF explained: “In sub-Saharan Africa, GDP growth is projected to increase from an estimated 3.6% in 2023 to 4.2% in 2025, as the adverse impacts of prior weather shocks abate and supply constraints gradually ease.”
The report noted that the downgrade for Sub-Saharan Africa reflects slower growth in Nigeria, amid weaker-than-expected activity in the first half of 2024. Additionally, ongoing conflict in South Sudan has led to a significant 26% contraction in its economy.
On a global scale, the IMF maintained its 2024 growth forecast at 3.2%, as predicted in the July WEO. However, it downgraded the 2025 forecast to 3.2%, down from the previous estimate of 3.3%.