…Analysts Warn Of Democratic Backslide, Shrinking Opposition Space
Olayiwola Matthew
As Nigeria edges closer to the 2027 general elections, political observers are increasingly worried that the country may be drifting towards a de facto one-party state.
The growing dominance of the All Progressives Congress (APC), coupled with the weakening of opposition parties and the mass defection of politicians into the ruling party, has fueled concerns about the future of democratic pluralism in Africa’s largest democracy.
Since its formation in 2013, the APC; a merger of several opposition parties; has steadily tightened its grip on the political landscape.
Its victory in the 2015 presidential election, which ended the 16-year rule of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), was hailed as a major triumph for Nigeria’s democracy. But a decade later, the narrative appears to have reversed.
Today, the PDP that once boasted of being “the largest party in Africa” is struggling with internal crises, leadership tussles, and defections that have hollowed out its ranks.
Other parties such as the Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), which once offered glimmers of hope during the 2023 elections, are now bogged down by infighting, lack of structure, and what many describe as “political fatigue.”
“What we are seeing is the slow erosion of multiparty competition.
“When a ruling party becomes so dominant that opposition voices are either co-opted or silenced, the essence of democracy is endangered,” said Dr. Femi Akinola, a political scientist at the University of Lagos.
Defections and patronage politics
A key driver of the trend is Nigeria’s culture of defection without consequence. Politicians frequently switch parties, often citing “irreconcilable differences,” but in reality seeking political survival, appointments, or access to resources.
Since 2024, several prominent opposition figures, including governors, senators, and members of the House of Representatives, have defected to the APC. In many states, the party now controls both the executive and legislative arms, leaving little room for dissent.
“The ruling party has weaponised patronage. If you want contracts, appointments, or political relevance, you must belong to the ruling camp. This is how democracies collapse quietly, not by coups, but by co-optation,” noted Comrade Rukayat Musa, an activist with the Civil Society Coalition for Electoral Reform.
INEC’s neutrality and the fear of capture
The concern is compounded by fears over the independence of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
With the recent change of leadership at the commission, as Dr. Olumide Amupitan takes over from Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, public expectations are high that the new helmsman will reinforce institutional neutrality.
However, many Nigerians worry that INEC could fall under political influence ahead of 2027.
“For democracy to thrive, electoral management bodies must be completely insulated from political pressure.
“If INEC becomes an appendage of the ruling party, then we are effectively in a one-party state,” said Barrister Emmanuel Agwu, an election observer.
Civil society and the media under pressure
Civil society groups and sections of the media, which have traditionally played watchdog roles, are also facing mounting pressure. Some journalists complain of shrinking press freedom, while NGOs report increased surveillance and bureaucratic bottlenecks in obtaining permits for rallies and civic engagements.
“The ruling elite now treats dissent as disloyalty. The civic space is narrowing, and the opposition is losing both voice and visibility,” lamented Mrs. Ifeoma Eze, Executive Director of the Democracy Network.
Echoes from the past
Nigeria’s political history offers sobering parallels. During the late military era and early years of civilian rule, attempts were made; both overtly and covertly, to consolidate political power under a single party.
The late General Sani Abacha’s regime notoriously tried to impose a one-party system in the 1990s, a move that was only halted by his sudden death in 1998.
Analysts warn that though Nigeria’s current slide is more subtle, the outcome could be just as dangerous.
Political analysts argue that the consequences of a one-party state are far-reaching: weakened accountability, lack of innovation in governance, corruption, and public apathy. Without credible opposition, elections become mere rituals, and citizens lose faith in the political process.
“Democracy needs competition to survive. When people begin to see that only one party can win, they stop voting, and when they stop voting, democracy dies quietly,” said Professor Aisha Abdullahi of Ahmadu Bello University.
Restoring balance
To prevent Nigeria’s democracy from sliding further, experts and activists are calling for a series of reforms; including stronger internal party democracy, revisiting the laws on defections, and enhancing INEC’s financial and operational autonomy. Civil society groups are also urging citizens to become more politically active and to hold all parties accountable.
PDP governors defecting to APC
The deepening political instability within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) again came to the fore early October, 2025 following the defection of Governor Peter Mbah of Enugu State to the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Announcing his decision at a press conference in Enugu, Governor Mbah said his move was driven by a commitment to advancing the state’s development agenda and aligning with the vision of the APC-led federal government.
“Today, after a long period of reflection, we have decided to leave the PDP and join the APC. We share a vision that transformation must be disruptive.
“I have found in His Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a partner in purpose; a man with the courage to look beyond today and make the tough choices that secure lasting prosperity for tomorrow,” Mbah declared.
He said his defection would “usher in a new era of development and progress” for Enugu State, assuring that “the voice of Enugu people, and indeed that of the South-East, would now be heard in Abuja.”
Mbah’s defection adds to a wave of high-profile exits from the PDP to the ruling APC in 2025; a trend that has sparked fresh debates about the opposition party’s future.
Umo Eno – Akwa Ibom State
Earlier in June 2025, Governor Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom State formally dumped the PDP for the APC after what he described as “months of consultations.”
Speaking during the defection ceremony, Governor Eno said his decision was guided by the need to ensure stability and sustained development in the state.
“After completing my consultations as your servant, I have decided to progressively move to the APC,” he announced.
“We are joining the APC today in the state’s interest and out of our admiration and respect for President Tinubu. We are not joining from a position of weakness, but from strength — to align Akwa Ibom with the centre.”
He added that the move would enable Akwa Ibom to “reap continuous benefits” from the federal government. Several members of his cabinet and political associates followed him into the APC, marking a major realignment in the state’s politics.
Sheriff Oborevwori (and Ifeanyi Okowa) – Delta State
In April 2025, Governor Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State and his predecessor, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa, also defected to the APC, along with top PDP leaders across the state.
The defection was announced after a six-hour meeting at Government House, Asaba, presided over by Senator James Manager.
“All PDP members in the state; including the governor, former Governor Okowa, the Speaker, the party chairman, all local government chairmen and others — have agreed to move to the APC. We cannot continue to be in a sinking boat,” Manager stated.
Delta’s Commissioner for Information, Mr. Charles Aniagwu, confirmed the defection, describing it as a strategic move to ensure continued peace and development in the state.
“We concluded that leaving the PDP was necessary for us to collaborate and build a state every Deltan would be proud of,” Aniagwu said.
“The PDP has become like a palm wine whose taste has changed — and there was a need for us to change the drinking party.”
The defections of Mbah, Eno, and Oborevwori; all within six months, have deepened internal rifts in the PDP, which has been grappling with leadership disputes and loss of members to the ruling party.
In a sign of worsening crisis, the PDP recently postponed its 103rd National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting, originally slated for October 15, 2025, citing “recent developments.”
Party insiders suggest the postponement is linked to the wave of defections and ongoing internal power struggles, as the opposition battles to redefine its relevance ahead of the 2027 general elections.
A test for 2027
As 2027 approaches, Nigeria stands at a crossroads. Will it deepen its democracy by ensuring a level playing field for all political actors, or will it succumb to the temptations of dominance and conformity?
For many Nigerians, the answer will determine whether the promise of democracy; fought for through years of struggle and sacrifice; still holds meaning.