“Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” – George Santayana
- By Hon. (Chief) Olalekan Alex Shoyinka,
Convener, United Premier Movement, Abeokuta.
Since the birth of Nigeria’s Fourth Republic in 1999, Ogun State has recorded what appears to be a political pattern — a strange and consistent defeat of sitting governors’ succession plans. No governor in the state has successfully installed a chosen successor — a puzzle that continues to shape conversations as we approach 2027.
The question before us is simple yet potent: Can Prince Dapo Abiodun defy the historical tide and pick who succeeds him? Or will he, like his predecessors, succumb to the same unrelenting tide of political resistance?
2003: THE FALL OF OSOBA AND THE RISE OF FEDERAL MIGHT
In 2003, Aremo Olusegun Osoba, then Governor under the Alliance for Democracy (AD), was a towering figure with deep grassroots support. Yet, despite his popularity, he lost his re-election bid. The coalition that ousted him included emerging forces from within and outside his party, aligned with the then-ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) at the federal level. Among those new forces were future governors: Otunba Gbenga Daniel, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, and the incumbent Prince Dapo Abiodun.
I remember those days vividly. My late mother and her PDP leaders in Ijemo Ward often spoke of the likely emergence of an Ijebu man. Dapo Abiodun, under the youthful “D.A.P.O – Dapo Abiodun Political Organization,” seemed like the choice. I even helped paste his campaign posters at night. But fate had other plans — Otunba Gbenga Daniel emerged, triumphed, and became Governor.
Many believe that Osoba lost not to the people, but to “Federal Politics” orchestrated by then-President Olusegun Obasanjo, who couldn’t afford political defeat in his home state. The message was clear: federal influence, not incumbency, determined Ogun’s destiny.
2011: GBENGA DANIEL’S FAILED SUCCESSION GAMBIT
Otunba Gbenga Daniel served two terms with charisma, vision, and a formidable political machinery that earned him the title “Lion of the West.” But as his tenure ended, cracks emerged within the PDP. A power tussle between him and Obasanjo split the party.
Two factions emerged: Daniel’s camp backed Prince Gboyega Nasir Isiaka (GNI), while Obasanjo’s loyalists pushed for General Adetunji Idowu Olurin, Rtd. (now of blessed memory). As the PDP imploded, Daniel’s loyalists defected to the then-unfamiliar Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN).
The internal conflict opened the gates for Senator Ibikunle Amosun, a former PDP man who had joined the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) led by Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. Amosun capitalized on the PDP’s division, swept the election, and a new party took over Ogun State.
Despite being Governor and PDP’s top leader in the state, Daniel couldn’t install his successor — a second major blow to the power of incumbency.
HISTORY, INFLUENCE AND THE BURDEN OF LEGACY
2019: AMOSUN’S ATTEMPT AND ABIODUN’S UNEXPECTED GRACE
Senator Ibikunle Amosun, having completed his second term with strong ties to the Presidency, attempted what others before him had failed — to install a loyal successor. His candidate, Hon. Adekunle Akinlade from Ogun West, was backed with full strength.
But the APC structure had shifted. Loyalists of Baba Osoba and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo preferred an Ogun East candidate — Prince Dapo Abiodun. When the party rejected Amosun’s candidate, he turned to the obscure Allied Peoples Movement (APM) and built it into a formidable force. Yet, FEDERAL MIGHT prevailed again, and Dapo Abiodun became governor.
THE BIG QUESTION: WHAT WILL PDA DO DIFFERENTLY?
History has shown that sitting governors in Ogun are rarely successful in handpicking their successors. Now, Governor Dapo Abiodun must either rewrite history or become another footnote in its unrelenting cycle.
“We live forward, but we understand backward.” – Søren Kierkegaard
With power dynamics shifting ahead of 2027, whispers in the political corridors suggest that PDA’s grip within APC is weakening. Many gladiators have begun realigning themselves with emerging camps. As the clock ticks, the question is no longer if they will shift, but when.
It’s time for the Governor to reflect: what will his legacy be? Will he be remembered like OGD — for grooming future leaders? Will his infrastructure projects echo five years after he’s left office? Will he leave behind loyal disciples who call him “leader”? These are the questions posterity will ask — and answer.
A DIPLOMATIC PATH FORWARD
As a student of political history, my candid advice to His Excellency is this: play the statesman. Allow the party, with input from the Presidency, to determine his successor. Focus on consolidating his legacy, securing goodwill, and building lasting relationships.
After all, life after office is longer than life in office.
“Apo tó kún kìí rárè.” (A filled bag does not burst by accident) – Yoruba Proverb
Let the Governor tread wisely. A wrong step may isolate him politically. A right one may earn him enduring respect, even from unlikely quarters.
PDA – Tó bá koju sí ẹ, kó o tà!
Tó bá kẹ́yìn sí ẹ, kó o tà!
Tó bá ku ìwọ nikan, tún ero ara rẹ̀ pa!
(If it faces you, sell it! If it turns its back to you, still sell it! If you’re the last one left, re-evaluate your strategy!)